Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 3.923109 4.708257 5.584279 6.630412 7.841745 9.196185 10.821018
2025-03-09 2.783611 3.778526 5.006091 6.616627 8.656620 11.135851 14.355821
2025-03-16 2.095872 3.164902 4.601774 6.639596 9.414520 13.015372 17.986732
2025-03-23 1.624912 2.699815 4.258018 6.621540 10.042683 14.729494 21.529689
2025-03-30 1.226658 2.234016 3.802580 6.334740 10.209236 15.780614 24.225562
2025-04-06 0.993839 1.965991 3.579051 6.328365 10.740091 17.348758 27.737709
2025-04-13 0.808394 1.731597 3.358770 6.276441 11.167710 18.771725 31.122756
2025-04-20 0.722317 1.655787 3.386865 6.624218 12.249231 21.260419 36.285715
2025-04-27 0.633649 1.553792 3.347574 6.841842 13.125076 23.481399 41.180505
2025-05-04 0.571733 1.492083 3.370146 7.165830 14.203293 26.098638 46.872770
2025-05-11 0.483223 1.351397 3.214130 7.132175 14.639012 27.671980 50.958675
2025-05-18 0.391342 1.179423 2.963384 6.876980 14.636216 28.484683 53.814078
2025-05-25 0.309782 1.012568 2.697431 6.561522 14.500918 29.081110 56.396050
2025-06-01 0.263335 0.924642 2.591285 6.562202 14.972002 30.791247 61.026928
2025-06-08 0.225814 0.850752 2.504062 6.590042 15.496050 32.631771 66.003346
2025-06-15 0.192039 0.777513 2.404208 6.573858 15.924072 34.317445 70.798145
2025-06-22 0.152688 0.672757 2.202137 6.289440 15.754359 34.842066 73.478445
2025-06-29 0.130423 0.617863 2.121736 6.283310 16.179413 36.547345 78.464229
2025-07-06 0.110166 0.562639 2.028880 6.231778 16.495499 38.052486 83.150127
2025-07-13 0.103905 0.559652 2.088090 6.577450 17.742864 41.520462 91.821458
2025-07-20 0.094700 0.541429 2.097840 6.793757 18.708538 44.466813 99.620344
2025-07-27 0.088789 0.535402 2.144710 7.115786 19.949924 48.059831 108.879525
2025-08-03 0.076034 0.493195 2.066531 7.082336 20.335405 49.868746 114.653731